- by Chris Aniedobe -
A South Southerner will be the President. The Southwest will mount a credible opposition. There will be unrest and recriminations in the North for losing power and no longer being able to work as a formidable united political front. The spoils of politics will go disproportionately to the North, still the most dominant political force in the Country; to the Southwest, a strong opposition camp that must be appeased, to the South South, the holders of the mantle, and the crumbs, if any, to the Igbos a completely dispensable group in Nigerian politics today. This Week with Aniedobe April 13, 2011
I called the unrest in the North. I also said that there will be recriminations as Northerners accuse fellow Northerners for why the North did not win. I also said that North will get disproportionately more of the national cake because I foresaw the unrest and Jonathan will now swing into the appeasement mode. If Jonathan will not appease, military coup or threat thereof will be a possibility. In any case, the degree of unrest and the need to control wilding Northern Youths could define his Presidency. Next will be the South West, because as PDP looses its grip on National politics, Jonathan will need the South West’s support to stabilize the government. Finally, Jonathan will take care of Ndi South South and the Igbos will get the least in spite of charges by NdiIgbo that a chicken does not forget who plucked its feathers in the rainy season. This Week Aniedobe April 19, 2011
Let’s dig back into history to show you why we should continue to expect sporadic acts of violence in the North until Presidency is returned back to the North. Following June 12, 1993, the Yorubas galvanized themselves in a big way and threatened hell and brimstone, including secession, until Obasanjo became the President. Part of the consideration then was to appease the Yorubas and to maintain national unity. Then came the South South under Dokubo Asari and the rest of the Ijaw boys. They threatened and are still threatening hell and brimstone until it became clear that to keep them at bay, they must be appeased. That was why when it came time for Obj to engineer a successor, he had to at least pick a South South Vice Presidential candidate to a North’s Presidential candidate. That was a leap frog moment in Nigerian history when the South South jumped over NdiIgbo as a political bloc to reckon with in Nigeria. This Week Aniedobe April 19, 2011
Going by history, a threat to disrupt national unity coupled with a strong political platform will always get you the apex job in Nigeria. I am not advocating violence obviously but I can call it today that the next President of Nigeria will be a Northerner and the need to maintain peace and appease the agitating Northerners will factor much into the equation. This Week Aniedobe April 19, 2011
Then hear my oracle:
To Ohaneze and Igbo Governors:
If there is Nigeria in 2015, the next President will be a Northerner. Jonathan will not be President after 2015. The strategy of the blind support for Jonathan that has been apparently adopted by Ohaneze and South East Governors forum show an apparent disregard for Nigerian history. UmuIgbo eketere ole under Jonathan is the question you will be asked when Jonathan looks Ndigbo in the face and deeply regrets that he could not engineer an Igbo Presidency. Ohaneze, know thy history. Have contingency plan. Nigeria of 2015 will be entirely different from Nigeria as we know it. Zik was a Nigerian until Nigeria told Zik that he was Igbo. Ohaneze, do not be more Nigerian than Zik. Know thy history. Have a contingency plan, I repeat. This all or nothing strategy is not only dangerous, it is irresponsible.
To President Goodluck Jonathan:
Spend every waking moment studying the history of the Ironsi administration. The similarities are eerie and you may be lucky to still be alive after 2015. There is a parallel government running in the background and you sensed it when you complained that Boko Haram has infiltrated every aspect of your government. Boko Haram is more than a nuisance factor on steroids, it is more than a terrorist group, it is a radical shadow government that is more organized than you can imagine and if you don’t deal an immediate and decisive blow to Boko Haram, you will lose control of the Nation, if not your life. Watch your advisers and close confidants. Ironsi surrounded himself with the very people who killed him. Ironsi thought he was a Nigerian and realized only when he got to heaven that Nigeria then and now remains an amalgam of immiscible tribes. President Jonathan, love Nigeria with all your heart. I do too, but know thy history.
To Nigerians:
You thought that the oil subsidy removal was about saving money to provide you with infrastructure. You got fooled again. I de laff is what Obasanjo would say watching you display your bookish learning on the pros and cons of subsidy removal. This one don pass WAEC. Nigeria is being looted to death and the government is desperate to find ways to keep up with its obligations. Nigeria is being looted faster than it can make the money. Let me repeat myself – Nigeria is being looted to death and the country is in desperate financial straits. If you do not stand up against the looting, there will come a time when Nigerians can neither be kept alive nor free. Don’t expect the government to do this for you. The institutional will is not there, has never been there. You have to let Jonathan know who owns the country or you will lose the country. Say no to looters or say yes Somalia. Ask Somalians how these things happen. Know thy history.
Respectfully,
Aniedobe
